After the first calendar half-year of 2010 brought good developments in overall global economic conditions, experts anticipate weaker growth during the rest of the year. The Ifo World Economic Climate clouded somewhat. Although the experts surveyed assess the current economic situation more positively than in the first half of 2010, expectations for the second half of 2010 were corrected downward somewhat. The economy appears to be slowing slightly in Asia in particular. International Monetary Fund (IMF) experts forecast global economic growth of 4.6 percent for 2010 as a whole and an increase of 4.3 percent for calendar year 2011. According to Oxford Economics, global GDP will grow by 4.6 percent year on year in calendar year 2010 and by 4.4 percent year on year in 2011. The encouraging economic outlook is also reflected in the expansion of global trade. The IMF expects global trade to rise by 9.0 percent in 2010 and by 6.3 percent in 2011. The positive development of the global economy as a whole is mainly attributable to strong expansion in economic output in the BIC countries (Brazil, India and China). In recent months, these countries functioned as economic growth engines and, thanks to their increasing demand, propped up the economic output of the industrialised countries.

The following overviews provide a forecast of year-on-year GDP growth rates:

⁶ Sources: Oxford Economics November 2010; Commerzbank, “Konjunktur und Finanzmärkte, September/Oktober 2010”; German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, “Schlaglichter der Wirtschaftspolitik monthly report, September 2010”; International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Update July 2010; CES ifo, Ifo World Economic Climate 18 August 2010; Oxford Economics Commodity Price Monitor September 2010.

With forecast growth rates of 9.0 percent in 2010 and 8.3 percent in 2011, the BIC countries will remain growth drivers for the global economy. The IMF anticipates that the Chinese economy will expand by 10.5 percent in 2010 as a whole and by 9.6 percent in 2011. Oxford Economics experts think it likely that the pace will be slightly slower and forecast Chinese GDP growth of 10.0 percent in 2010 and 9.0 percent in 2011. Economic indicators in China were surprisingly downbeat recently, pointing at a slowdown in growth. However, this flagging pace is not entirely unexpected. For some time now, China’s central bank has attempted to throttle back credit growth. The extension of new credit is the most important indicator in Chinese monetary policy. Moreover, the economic stimulus package launched in August 2008 will expire this year and to date it is unclear whether another package will follow. India and Brazil will also see high growth rates.

In the USA, growth is expected to be weaker than originally anticipated. However, there is also positive news. Experts believe that the savings rate of private households, which has returned to a sufficiently high level, indicates continuation of the moderate upward trend. Housing prices stopped falling a year ago. According to Oxford Economics, the US economy could grow by 2.6 percent in calendar year 2010 and 2.5 percent in 2011. However, the still-high unemployment rate is delaying economic expansion.

Economic growth anticipated for the euro zone countries will also be lower again in the second half of 2010. The economies of the countries affected by the real estate and government debt crises in particular are expected to see growth decelerate sharply. In contrast, the economies of the other countries, with Germany leading the pack, are forecast to expand at a faster pace than their long-term average. However, experts believe that the growth will be insufficient to make up quickly for the strong declines experienced previously.

In Germany, the economy performed particularly well in the first half of 2010. The key factors in this development were powerful impetus from foreign trade, catch-up effects and a larger boost from the domestic economy. Continued strong growth in global trade and the increase in investments point to an ongoing upswing in Germany in the second half of 2010.

However, due to extraordinary factors ceasing to exist (particularly catch-up effects), growth rates are predicted to slow down. As one of the top export countries, Germany will remain under the influence of the global economy even with stronger domestic economic growth. For 2010 as a whole, experts anticipate Germany’s GDP to rise by 3.1 percent. Growth in 2011, however, is forecast to weaken to only 1.8 percent.

The growth of the US economy, less robust than expected, led the US Federal Reserve to push back its withdrawal from expansionary monetary policy again. If the US economy continues to disappoint, this could adversely affect the US dollar in the short term. In the medium term, however, experts believe that the US dollar will gain further strength against the euro.

Crude oil prices have tended sideways in 2010 in view of strong fluctuations. Oxford Economics experts anticipate that the price per barrel of Brent crude will hover around USD 77.40 on average in the third calendar quarter of 2010. Firstly, weak performance of the US economy – by far the largest consumer of oil in the world – is having an adverse impact. Another factor taking its toll is the also anaemic performance of the Chinese economy – now the second largest user of oil in the world with the highest growth rates in absolute terms. In the fourth calendar quarter of 2010, experts predict an increase in oil prices to an average of USD 78.20 per barrel. Current forecasts indicate a further rise to USD 80 per barrel next year. This expectation is based on the substantial growth of emerging market economies.

Development of Commodity Prices (Base Metal Price Indices), Year-on-Year Growth:pment of Commodity Prices (Base Metal Price Indices), Year-on-Year Growth: